PAGASA: ‘Weak’ El Niño begins, to strengthen in coming months

PAGASA, the state weather bureau, announced Tuesday that El Nio has developed in the tropical Pacific, which may have a negative impact on the country’s crops, water resources, and health.

A PAGASA advisory was issued in response to this development.

PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction chief, Ana Liza Solis, said in a briefing that El Nio will persist until the first quarter of 2024.

Currently, El Nio is weak, but models indicate a high probability of El Nio becoming moderate to strong during the last quarter of 2011.

It is possible that some parts of the Philippines may experience dry spells and droughts caused by El Nio.

PAGASA predicts 36 provinces to experience dry spells this year, and two provinces to experience drought — Camarines Norte and Southern Leyte.

However, state meteorologists caution that enhanced southwest monsoon may still occur over western parts of the country, resulting in above-normal rainfall.

The country is expected to be affected by at least 10 to 14 tropical cyclones until December.

It urged the public and government agencies to conserve water and take precautionary measures. El Nio is expected to have adverse impacts on the Philippines in April, as President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. ordered the creation of a team to mitigate these effects.

A new spike in global heating is likely to occur as a result of El Nio, according to the World Meteorological Organization. It occurs every two to seven years and last occurred in 2018 and 2019.